Dollar today: blue rises by $ 6, MEP breaks historic record and country risk exceeds 2,100 points

“Distrust has increased and investors are seeking refuge in dollars.” summed up one trader, explaining why free exchange rates woke up last week after the massive outflow of funds from CER (inflation-linked) bonds. Today, the pressure on the foreign exchange market continues: blue dollar opens the week on the rise and on MEP dollar broke a new nominal record.

After the first semicircle of the day, the caves in Buenos Aires sang loudly a a parallel exchange rate of $ 216 for sale, a value that has not been recorded since mid-February. That’s an increase of $ 6 from the previous close (+2.38) and $ 11 from last Monday (+ 5.3%).

“At the local level, CER’s debt has exploded, peso bonds have fallen and the Central Bank (BCRA) has stepped in to stop the momentum, but that is not enough. Pesos go in cash with liquidation (CCL), which held for about basics too poor. That is why the free dollar is rising and peso bonds are falling. There is a situation of semi-panic, “said Juan Ignacio Paoliki, an economist at Empiria Consultores.

However, the strongest increase continues to be reported in financial exchange rates. Since last week, they have registered advances between $ 12.50 (MEP) and $ 17.97 (settled). Today, they open on screens with magnifications between six and eight pesos.

“Investors trapped in funds will continue to sell inflation-adjusted peso bonds. There is a lot of money in funds, with non-professional investors who will leave the system at the slightest decline in the fund. This will tip the balance for buying dollars. That’s why we are seeing a sharp rise in alternative dollars. ” summed up financial analyst Salvador di Stefano.

The MEP set a new record for all time Shutterstock – Shutterstock

In the first round of the week, the MEP dollar rose to $ 226.93, daily climb of $ 6 (+ 2.7%). This is the highest face value in history. The previous record was $ 224.87 at the end of January, when uncertainty bypassed negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The dollar is counted with liquidation Through the purchase and sale of AL30 bonds, it traded at $ 235.70, an increase of eight pesos compared to the previous close (+ 2.7%). However, in this case it is still at $ 8 away from its all-time high of $ 244.

“One of the important challenges that the Minister of Economy and the President of the Central Bank will face will be the behavior of financial and parallel exchange rates to date. The trembling of CER bonds brought with it an escalation of financial dollars. The introduction of a calm measure in the foreign exchange market will also be key to what may come in the short term in the macroeconomic field. analyzes Emilze Cordoba, director of Bell Inversiones.

Outside of Argentina, world markets are also experiencing minus days. Last week saw inflation in the United States at 8.6 percent year on year, a figure that was worse than analysts had expected. Therefore, this week the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce a new tightening of monetary policy, in an attempt to limit the constant rise in prices.

Faced with a scenario of lower risk diversion globally today bonds on the last sink to replace debt. Abroad, they represent reds, ranging from 1.1% (Global 2046) to 4.4% (Bonar 2041). Locally, they sank to 2152 (AE38).

“The resurgent universe has been accompanied by global pessimism since the publication of inflation data in the United States. This instability is not alien to Argentina without economic direction and with weaknesses in the political plane. This week’s inflation data will also put pressure on the interest rate scheme, possibly with a new rise in monetary policy interest rates, which will be the Central Bank’s tool to try to channel the macroeconomic situation. Markets around the world are turning their attention to the Fed and Argentine bonds opened in red, “explained the Portfolio Personal de Inversiones (PPI).

The decline in government bonds has a direct impact on the country’s risk. Today, the index compiled by JP Morgan climbs by 80 units and is positioned at 2124 basis points (+ 3.9%), thus crossing a new barrier. The numbers that appear this Monday on the screen they are the highest since the debt restructuring to private companies in September 2020.

“There is sale (mass sale) of all assets worldwide. That is why government risk today exceeds 2,100 basis points, and debt in dollars has fallen by 9% in the last week. All this is largely explained in the world, because Argentina does not present a consistent plan and no one wants to buy Argentina. This is an unattractive debt from a technical point of view.or. To this is added that at the international level the recession of the great powers, more inflation, rising interest rates … All this creates a pricing a market with the biggest recession, “Paoliki agreed.

The dollar is rising: what is behind the escalation of the blues and financiers

In the stock market, the world’s major stock markets are sinking. In the United States, the Nasdaq technology index opened 3.66% down; S & P500, 2.85% and Dow Jones Industrial, 1.94%. In Europe, the largest declines are on the stock exchange in Milan (-2.79%), Paris (-2.67%) and Madrid (-2.47%). The stock market in Buenos Aires operates with 87,475 units, down 1.9%.

The same is happening with the Argentine shares listed in New York (ADR). Mercado Libre fell 10.9% followed by Despegar (-9.8%), Banco Supervielle (-8.3%) and Globant (-8.2%).

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